“There are reasons to increase our gold price forecasts in recent weeks,” said Anna-Laura Tremblay, an analyst at BNP Paribas. The decision to keep interest rates close to zero until 2013. In this context, gold prices rose 18% on August 23 to a record high of $ 1912 per ounce. “
The strengthening trend towards risk aversion, observed since July, has been characterized by large-scale sales of risky assets, including industrial commodities and stocks. At the same time, assets that traditionally play the role of a safe haven, such as US bonds (US Treasury, gold and Swiss franc) have risen significantly. The VIX, a measure of volatility in equity markets, jumped 48% on August 8 and peaked since May 2010.
U.S. macroeconomic statistics indicate an increasing likelihood of a double-dip recession. The latest data show that activity in the manufacturing sector is declining, that the real estate market continues to decline, consumer confidence is declining and inflation is rising. European indicators are also weakening, although, surprisingly, business activity indices (PMIs) are rising. According to A.-L. Tremblay, in 2011-2012. high uncertainty about the economy and finance will continue to push gold prices upward.
In light of recent developments, the US Federal Reserve has advocated the policy of quantitative easing, promising to keep interest rates at a level close to zero for two years, which was an unprecedented step. In addition to promising to keep rates at minimum levels for the next two years, the FOMC announced the likely implementation of additional measures to stimulate the economy: “Committee members discussed a list of monetary instruments that can be used to accelerate the economic recovery in the context of price stability and are ready to apply them if necessary. “…