It seems that gold still cannot get out of the hot summer nap. No matter how hard it tries, it still fails to return to the highs of late May – early June, not to mention the highs of the late summer of 2020. Gold finished the week at $ 1.808, but on Monday dropped to $ 1,800 again, periodically falling even lower, and then regaining the fall.
Silver breaks the $ 26 mark in both directions again.
Basel 3 – again by
We’re in the middle of summer, but the golden news continues to hit news feeds. On Monday, another series was released in the process of implementing the Basel 3 banking regulation package. British banks have the right to postpone the date of their introduction into circulation until the beginning of 2022.
Under the new rules, “paper gold” (in particular, forward contracts for the purchase / supply of gold, as well as options and futures) will be classified as more “risky” than physical gold in the form of coins or bars – which suggests that these paper positions banks will have to keep an additional liquidity reserve (up to 80% of the asset value) – as against loans, for example. This makes these positions not very profitable for banks and creates an incentive to close them. Of course, this will limit the liquidity of this market on the interbank market and may contribute to increased volatility. And given the fact that London banks hold a large volume of obligations for the supply of metal (according to some sources – over 10 thousand tons), and each gold bar in the vaults of gold dealer banks in London has been sold more than a dozen times, the liquidation of these positions can lead to a spike in demand for physical gold – and a rise in price.
However, so far, at the moment, there have been no dramatic fluctuations in the market – except for a sharp correction in June, from $ 1,915 to $ 1,750 per ounce. We believe that banks will gradually reduce their paper positions in precious metals in order to smooth out a possible upward price jump, but this reduction will push prices up in the long term.
Totalitarianism of central bank digital currencies
The problem of cryptocurrencies in general and digital currencies of central banks (CECBs) in particular is also on the agenda. So on Friday, the world financial elite, including the Bank for International Settlements, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, issued a joint statement on the need for global cooperation on the Central Bank of Russia problem.
CVCBs provide an opportunity to start from scratch. It is imperative that central banks take into account the cross-border vector of the problem, said Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe.
Translating all this into Russian, financial oligarchs believe that for complete and universal control of citizens’ transactions, it is also necessary to control transfers between countries and create an associated system of such control. But in this area, one should hardly expect any progress in the near future, or ever at all, since the work of digital state currencies will directly depend on the trust of citizens in them. And the trust of citizens in their governments is currently evaporating around the world at an increasingly rapid rate.
Retail monetization of gold – the experience of Kazakhstan
But trust in gold, where citizens are given the opportunity to freely buy and sell, remains high. In the world today there are only a few programs for the monetization of physical gold among the population, and the most successful of them, largely due to the fact that there is a lot of information about it, is carried out in Kazakhstan.
The program was launched in the spring of 2017 and President Nursultan Nazarbayev became the first symbolic buyer of gold bars within its framework. The size range of gold bars includes five weights: 5, 10 (the most popular weight), 20, 50 and 100 g. Gold bars are not subject to VAT and are freely sold and bought at bank branches throughout the country. The ingots are sealed in protective plastic envelopes containing unique item numbers and descriptions.
The program enjoys great success among the people of Kazakhstan, since its inception, 1.95 tons of gold metal have already been purchased, and less than 6 kg have been returned.
Here, note the importance of the fact that citizens have the opportunity to sell bullion back, so they do not perceive the program as an attempt by the state to dump some kind of nonsense to ordinary people.
Rumor has it that banks often refuse to sell bullion to customers simply because they are not produced in sufficient quantities to meet demand.
According to the latest data, in May the volume of sales decreased slightly compared to April, but, nevertheless, Kazakhstanis bought 1,813 measured ingots with a total weight of 60.7 kg.
Similar programs work in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, but only Kazakhstan publishes monthly sales updates in visual infographics, as shown on the right.
Such clear and accessible programs are the best way to popularize savings in precious metals among ordinary citizens.
Forecasts of changes in quotations of the Russian ruble
Ruble quotes on Monday remained practically unchanged compared to the middle of last week; on Monday evening, its exchange rate was 74.4 rubles. On Friday, the ruble closed at 74.34 rubles. Over the past two weeks, the ruble has depreciated by 2 rubles against the US dollar.
According to the consensus forecast calculated by the Kommersant newspaper based on the results of a survey of five large Russian banks, on Friday, July 16, the ruble will rise to RUB 74.03 against the dollar.
The forecast range varies from a minimum of 72 rubles. from MTS Bank to a maximum of 75.80 rubles. at the Russian Standard Bank. This optimism is explained by strong oil quotes, the end of the purchase of currency by the RF Ministry of Finance, as well as a likely increase in the Central Bank rate in July.
It is worth noting the overwhelmingly positive attitude of most analysts regarding the prospects for the Russian currency both for the next week and for the second half of summer and early autumn.
Investment Director of Loko-Invest Dmitry Polevoy points to a technically important range of 74.25-74.95 rubles, in which the ruble quotes are likely to be traded during this week. This is generally consistent with the opinion of analysts interviewed by the Kommersant newspaper.
Analysts at Bank Saint Petersburg also expect the ruble to strengthen this week to RUB 74. per US dollar.
One of the local factors that can support the ruble quotes, they call the sale of foreign currency by large Russian exporters who are preparing to pay dividends.
Maxim Petronevich, senior economist at Otkritie Bank, expects the ruble to strengthen in the fall to a range of 72.5-73 rubles. The weakening of the Russian currency to current levels was caused, in his opinion, by the acceleration of the annual inflation rate in Russia.
Mark Goikhman, chief analyst at TeleTrade, brings a bearish note to the bullish chorus, who believes that the ruble is moving out of the RUB 71-72 zone. to 74-75 rubles. for the dollar. He explains this exclusively by external reasons, such as the possible emergence of new, more deadly strains of coronavirus that will hit risky assets, including emerging market currencies.
What’s with the gold rate? – technical picture
The 200-day moving average of the gold price is moving sideways, forming a barrier for the gold price to break above. In the event of a breakout of the 50-day moving average at the daily close, the gold price could reach $ 1,865.
The important support levels remain $ 1,750 and $ 1,680; it was from the second mark that a strong growth began in March. The overall situation remains quite favorable for gold, but more clarity will emerge by the end of July.
Russian investment coins market
The ruble rose in July, but the price of gold in US dollars remains below the levels of the end of spring, which balances the prices of Russian investment coins.
Prices for the reference gold St. George the Victorious, weighing 1.4 ounces, remain in the range of 37.000-37.500 rubles. The appearance on the Russian market of the gold George the Victorious coin weighing 15.55 g (1/2 ounce) attracts additional interest in this savings segment. Take advantage of the summer lull to replenish your gold reserves.